It has been pointed out already that no knowledge of probabilities less in degree than certainty helps us to know what conclusions are true and that there is no direct relation between the truth of a proposition and its probability. Probability begins and ends with probability.
Probability is a kind of penance which God made suitable I presume to that state of mediocrity and probationership he has been pleased to place us in here; wherein to check our over-confidence and presumption we might by every days experience be made sensible of our short-sightedness and liableness to error.
He who has heard the same thing told by 12000 eye-witnesses has only 12000 probabilities which are equal to one strong probability which is far from certain.
To us probability is the very guide of life.
Lest men suspect your tale untrue Keep probability in view.
The laws of probability so true in general so fallacious in particular.
It has been pointed out already that no knowledge of probabilities less in degree than certainty helps us to know what conclusions are true and that there is no direct relation between the truth of a proposition and its probability. Probability begins and ends with probability.
Probability is a kind of penance which God made suitable I presume to that state of mediocrity and probationership he has been pleased to place us in here; wherein to check our over-confidence and presumption we might by every days experience be made sensible of our short-sightedness and liableness to error.
A pinch of probability is worth a pound of perhaps.
He who has heard the same thing told by 12000 eye-witnesses has only 12000 probabilities which are equal to one strong probability which is far from certain.